Weekly outlook: How FX, stock market, foreign reserve performed during the week – Nairametrics

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the CPI (Consumer Price Index) report for the month of March 2022, which showed that Nigeria’s inflation rate quickened to a five-month high, standing at 15.92%, representing 0.21% point rise above the 15.7% rate recorded in the previous month.

The rise in the rate was attributed to the 17.2% rise in the food index, while the core inflation stood at 13.91% for March 2022. The uptick in food inflation rate was attributed to the increase in the prices of bread and cereals, Food product, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, meat, oils and fats.

Nigeria’s economy continues to suffer from increased inflationary pressure following the energy crisis witnessed in the third month, with the cost of power surging to unprecedented levels as a result of multiple national grid disruptions and a rise in the cost of fuel.

The national grid also collapsed in the past week, with power generation dropping as low as 37,964.93MWh on Saturday, 9th April 2022, while the country needs at least a regular supply of 105,000MWh in order to have a relatively stable supply of power. Meanwhile, the grid has been restored by the TCN, recording a peak generation of 4,142.1MW on Friday, 15th April 2022.

Equities market

The All-Share Index of the Nigerian Stock market closed bullish in the previous week, rising by 1.99% to stand at 47,558.45 index points as of 14th April 2022 compared to 46,631.46 points recorded in the previous week.

Notably, all the indexes tracked by the bourse recorded positive movements in the review week, with the NGX Banking index rallying 5.59% to close at 438.78 index.

A total turnover of 1.247 billion shares worth N22.372 billion in 23,406 deals was traded in the review week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 1.137 billion shares valued at N10.812 billion that exchanged hands across 23,471 deals in the previous week.

FX market

The exchange rate at the official Investors and Exporters Window depreciated by 0.2% in the review market to close at N417.5/$1 on Thursday, 14th April 2022, compared to N416.67/$1 recorded as of the end of the previous week.

The market traded for four days during the week, due to the Good Friday public holiday, with a sum of $581.41 million of FX traded in the market, which is higher than the $524.36 million traded in the previous week, despite lower number of trading days.

According to data tracked by Nairalytics, the research arm of Nairametrics, the exchange rate at the parallel market depreciated by 0.17% during the week to close at N588/$1 from N587/$1 recorded in the preceding week.

In the same vein, exchange rate at the P2P market dropped sharply by 2.3% to trade at a minimum of N589/$1 as of Friday, 15th April 2022 compared to N576/$1 recorded on Friday, 8th April 2022.

Foreign Reserve

Nigeria’s foreign reserve continues to appreciate on the back of sustained bullish crude oil market, with Brent Crude trading at $111 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate ($106.95), Bonny Light ($107.08), Brass River and Qua Iboe both trading at $113.44 per barrel.

The external reserve extended it rise, standing at $39.73 billion as of 13th April 2022, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Outlook

  • Nigeria’s external reserve is expected to continue its upward movement into the new week, albeit marginal movements.
  • While the CBN continue to intervene in the official FX market, we see the exchange rate at the I&E window hovering around N416 – N417 to a dollar.
  • The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release the Gross Domestic Product report for the first quarter of 2022 during the week, and Nairametrics expects an expansion in the economic value, following increased inflationary numbers in February and March of the year. Also, considering that the economy only grew by 0.51% in the corresponding period of 2021.

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